Is the world worse today? Part One

This is a commentary. It is not an official position of the 2001 Translation. We are not a religion and we do not take doctrinal positions.

Is the world worse today?

Do we see the words of Revelation being fulfilled before our eyes? Do world events show that the so-called “four horses of the apocalypse” are riding?

Some say yes!

Revelation 6:5-8 says:

Many say that these words are being fulfilled right now, in 2023.

Yet this claim is not a mere religious belief, doctrine, or a matter of faith. This is a factual claim – and factual claims can be tested against evidence. So let’s test it out! After all, the Bible itself encourages us to gather knowledge:

This is the first part of three deep dives into charts showing how the human condition has changed over time. All the data comes from the excellent resource, Our World in Data. We’ll see how the facts compare to the claims made.

Let’s start with hunger, famines, and malnutrition.

Are famines getting worse? This chart shows how many people died each year from famines, starting way back in the 1860s. The blue columns show the number of famine victims. The red line shows the total world population.

As you can see, the 1870s were a bad time for famines (worse than any decade in the 20th century), and the 1920s, 1940s, and 1960s were almost as bad. However, after that, famine deaths decreased dramatically to an unusual low. This is despite the huge increase in population.

Yes, the world population increased, but the famines decreased!

With a record-high population of 8 billion and record-low famine deaths, your average person is now less likely to die from famine than at any time in history. That’s astonishing!

Indeed, the improvement is even more dramatic than the chart suggests, as it only goes back to the 1860s. What about before then? The report comments:

So yes, famines became much rarer in the 20th and 21st centuries. They do still happen, but now they’re even more newsworthy because of their rarity.

However, just because there are hardly any famines anymore, it doesn’t automatically follow that people still eat enough in ordinary times (outside of famines).

So let’s look at how many calories, on average, each person consumes per day:

As you can see, it’s up, up, and up! On every continent, your average person either eats enough or too much. We eat more food per person than our ancestors ever did.

Further, the situation has improved even more than the chart suggests. Today, many of us now work in sedentary jobs, have motorized transport, use mechanical tools, and women have fewer pregnancies, so our personal need to burn calories has dropped in ways never seen before.

In other words, your average person has a record-high calorie consumption and a record-low calorie need.

We are able to eat more than ever before because we are growing more than ever before:

Yes, we are now growing more of every staple crop than at any time in history. We are growing record amounts of wheat, rice, barley, maize, rye, oats, millet, sorghum, and potatoes. We can tell the same story for fruits, vegetables, oils, and meat. Check out the Our World in Data website for details.

Well, people may be eating more, but are they struggling to pay? Some people certainly do struggle – even in rich countries. However, the question is: how have things changed? Has the number of people who struggle to afford food gone up or down?

Well, let’s look at how many people now live in extreme poverty:

Yes, back in 1820, almost 8 in 10 people lived in extreme poverty. By 2018, it had dropped to 1 in 10. That’s an enormous, record-shattering decrease!

That may seem like cold comfort to someone who is still in that situation, but you’re also much less likely to stay in that situation. Billions have been lifted out of poverty in recent decades, and worldwide wages, on average, continue to increase – particularly in our most-populated continent, Asia:

But again, it’s even better than the chart suggests, as not only have people been getting richer, but the food itself is cheaper to buy:

Apart from beef and lamb, most ingredients are cheaper now than they were in years past. It may not feel this way (especially during a sudden peak of inflation), but the basic foodstuffs cost less in 2023 than in 1850 – despite the population increasing by 600% since then.

So yes, more people are eating – but is the food nutritious? Well, one good indicator of nutrition in childhood is height. If your food is lacking nutrients, your growth will be stunted. So what’s happened? Let’s see:

Yes, people are taller today. We are, on average, getting more of the nutrients we need during childhood. Even though some still do not, the numbers have improved, not worsened.

So there’s no surprise that there has also been a massive increase in life expectancy:

Therefore, the world population has exploded:

If humanity were experiencing an unusual lack of food, our population chart would not end with a massive spike.

Further, one of the biggest problems we now face is not malnutrition, famine, or starvation – it is being overweight or obese.

It’s even a “growing” problem (pun intended) in the developing world:

Yes, we are more likely to be fat than ever before in history – even if we live in a developing country.

To summarize:

• We are less likely to die in famines than ever before.

• We grow more food than ever before.

• We buy more food than ever before.

• We eat more food than ever before.

• We are taller than ever before.

• We live longer than ever before.

• We are fatter than ever before.

• We are more numerous than ever before.

So are we experiencing the famines in Revelation? Are the four horses of the apocalypse loose? Well, let’s look at the passage:

Using the knowledge we’ve gathered, we have more than enough information to know whether the above words are being fulfilled today.

Are we currently in a period of unusually great famine and death? Or are we seeing unprecedented abundance, widespread obesity, and massive population growth?

Which conclusion does the data support?

Thank you for reading.

Next month, we’ll see part two, in which we’ll ask: Are war and conflict worse today than in the past?

Alfred Larsen

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