Is the world worse today? Part Three

This is a commentary. It is not an official position of the 2001 Translation. We are not a religion and we do not take doctrinal positions.

Over the past two months, this series of commentaries has discussed whether hunger and war are worse today than in previous centuries. First, we found that famine and starvation are rarer than ever before in human history. Then, we saw how today, people are less likely to die from war than from an asthma attack or a car accident.

In this final installment, we’ll see whether diseases are worse. Most of the data comes from Our World in Data.

Revelation says:

Some Christians feel that diseases such as HIV/AIDS and Covid-19 are evidence that we are living in the very time that the “four horsemen of the apocalypse” are riding.

However, this is not a religious claim but a factual one. Worldwide deaths from diseases are counted and recorded; they can be looked up and examined. There is no need for interpretation or leaps of faith; we can get the data and see whether these horsemen really are on the loose.

Are we living in a time of unusually widespread plagues?

A good place to start is life expectancy. If more of us were dying of diseases (or “plagues”), the average lifespan would drop. What has happened in recent centuries?

As you can see, the average lifespan has massively increased. In Europe, the Americas, and Oceania, it began climbing in the 1870s, right when sewerage systems and medical care started to become widespread. Asia began the same transition in the 1910s, followed by Africa in the 1920s.

Everyone on earth lives more years in the modern era than ever before!

In 2020, lifespan reached a record high on every continent.

The recent dip in 2021 was due to Covid-19. Yet, despite that pandemic, the world population has continued to climb, and we have no reason to believe that average life expectancy will not resume its previous ascent.

Indeed, Covid-19 has merely set the average back to what it was a few short years ago. For example, the African lifespan is back to what it was in just 2016. Europe’s is back to 2010. And there’s an ongoing debate as to how much of this drop is due to the disease, and how much is due to the lockdowns preventing people from attending normal medical appointments.

Anyway, the point is that our modern era is marked by an unusually large increase in life expectancy. This is only possible by a reduction in “plagues”, not an increase.

The main driver of our increase in lifespan is that children are much less likely to die:

Look at those numbers on the left. Yes, 40% of children dying used to be normal. The graphic below shows how many children died in specific Western nations back in the 17th and 18th centuries:

Yes, even in Sweden, Germany, and France, it was perfectly normal for 40-50% of all children to die of childhood diseases.

Archeologists have studied many ancient cultures and reported that the normal, average, and expected rate of child death is about 48%. This chart shows how dramatically things have changed in the very recent past:

That enormous drop in the red line is the percentage of child deaths in the modern era. The chart goes all the way back to 300 BC, showing that an average of 48% of children would die in ancient societies until very recently. The publishers of this graph took data from studies on the Romans, the Aztecs, the Egyptians, the Nascans in Peru, medieval Japan, and even hunter-gather societies. Half of all children died. It was normal.

Then, suddenly, in the 19th century, the rate started to drop, and drop, and drop, crashing to 4.3% globally. The rate is lowest in Scandinavia, Slovenia, and Japan, which enjoy an infant mortality rate of just 0.3%. That’s the lowest in history!

This wonderful chart shows just how much things have improved:

It’s easy to forget that for much of history, an average woman gave birth 8 or 10 times, and almost half of these children died before age 6. If a single child dies today, the local newspaper usually reports it. Why? Because it’s rare. Some deaths even get national media attention if they’re particularly tragic. Yet 100 years ago, every family on every street buried an average of 3 to 5 children.

And it was normal.

Everything changed thanks to better nutrition, improved sanitation, and modern medicines like antibiotics. In fact, many common childhood diseases have been wiped out entirely. Consider polio:

And, of course, smallpox:

Children (and adults) also die less because they’re much less likely to drink contaminated water:

So yes, even among us adults, things have got much better. Look at how rates of smoking have declined since 1990:

Deaths from HIV/AIDS have already peaked and are in decline:

A similar story can be told for cancer. Look at the survival rates (at least, in the United States):

We’re even dying from air pollution less than ever before:

In the vast majority of ways, our health is better than ever, and we live longer than ever. Yes, diseases and “plagues” harm us less now than at any point in human history.

Let’s not forget just how bad things were in the past, and how good we have it today. For example, the Black Death (1346-1353) was one of many true plagues that swept the Earth over the centuries.

Regarding the Black Death, Wikipedia says:

Let’s just consider how high that number is…

Since the world population was much lower back then, 75-200 million would represent about 16-44% of all human beings alive at that time. That is completely unimaginable today!

How does that compare to Covid-19? As of August 2023, The World Health Organization estimates Covid deaths to be 6.9 million. If we assume (for argument’s sake) that the number is correct, it would represent just 0.08625% of the global population.

Our modern “plague” was tiny compared to those of the past.

Deadly plagues (the Black Death was just one of many) swept the world with such regularity that death became a favorite topic of art. In 1562, the Dutch painter Peter Bruegel painted The Triumph of Death, showing the effects of such plagues.

Here are some detailed parts of it:

It didn’t only show death and dying, but also the political chaos, wars, and social upheaval that such events brought. Interestingly, the paintings’ Wikipedia page says:

Yes, if there were ever a time to think that Revelation was being fulfilled before our eyes, it was in the past, not the present.

In comparison to our ancestors, we are spoiled. Our governments even spend record-setting proportions of their national income on healthcare:

Of course, many millions of people still live in poverty in the developing world, and they can’t afford access to healthcare. Do they not count? Well, the question at hand is not, “Do people still suffer from disease?”, no, the question is, “Are we living in a time of unusual and unprecedented disease as described in Revelation?”

And what’s the answer?

Let’s go back to Revelation 6:8:

Personally, I cannot see how we could be experiencing Revelation 6:8 today. On the contrary, it seems like we live in an unusually healthy time in history – we have a distinct lack of death due to plagues – and things continue to improve.

Heck, we’re even less likely to die from natural disasters:

While it’s always unnerving to see the latest disaster in the news (such as the recent pandemic), if we take a step back and look at the big picture, history reveals some important context: our ancestors had it far worse than anything we can imagine today.

Believing that “we’re seeing Revelation unfold before our very eyes” can feel exciting. But it aint happening. On the contrary, our modern era has experienced an enormous improvement in health – the exact opposite of what Revelation describes.

Following Jesus, by necessity, involves seeking out and telling the truth.

As Paul said in 2 Corinthians 13:8:

Yes, we must support truth. For truth, facts, and understanding are intimately connected to our worship of Yahweh, Almighty God.

Proverbs 1:7 says:

Thank you for reading.

Alfred Larsen

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